12:30pm | Saturday 6th December | Pride Park
It’s the most wonderful time of the year! The Rams are kicking off the busy Christmas fixture list with the first of two games against Leicester City in December.
There’s a sense that this six-game run will be make-or-break in regard to the Rams’ potential foray into the play-off race this season. Leicester will always give you a difficult game and we play them home and away, Birmingham and Millwall are well in the mix at the top end and will provide Derby with a thorough examination and Portsmouth and Wednesday are there to be beaten at the moment, and if you can’t beat them then do you really deserve to be up there? When the New Year fireworks are popping overhead, will the Derby fans be dreaming that 2026 could be the year we return to the top tier?
Before we get ahead of ourselves, we need to take it one game at a time, and Leicester at home are first up to the plate. How are the visitors likely to set up and are Derby likely to get a result? Let’s take a look.
The Run-In:
Since the return of Sondre Langas and the back 5, Derby have been on a bit of a tear. From relegation battle to promotion fight in just over a month, the Rams are a prime example of just how much a good run of form can change your fortunes in a league as tight as this. 6 wins from 8 has Eustace’s boys sat in 11th and within touching distance of the play-offs. Three points against Leicester would give their promotion credentials some real legitimacy.
Leicester have been operating under a self-imposed transfer ban to try and balance their allegedly extremely wonky books since their relegation from the Premier League last time out. A hearing over a potential points deduction still looms, and we may hear the outcome of that very soon. On the pitch, the Foxes have struggled. They started strongly, winning 3 of their opening 4 league games, but have since found victories hard to come by. They’ve only won another 4 from the proceeding 14 games, instead opting to draw or lose most of their games – an interesting strategy from Cifuentes. 2 of those wins did come in their last 4 games, but they were immediately followed by two big losses to Southampton and Sheffield United. They certainly have the quality in their squad to compete at a higher level than they’ve shown, so does the blame fall on Marti Cifuentes’ tactical setup?
If there’s a solace for Leicester fans, we are awful against them. The clubs last met competitively over eight years ago in the February of 2017, the infamous FA Cup replay in which Abdoul Camara managed his one and only Derby goal. Good times, eh?
Leicester have won 9 of the last 11 meetings between the two sides, drawing the first game in that FA Cup round and somehow managing to lose to us all the way back in 2013. Our last win against the Foxes was that long ago that Craig Forsyth assisted the winner. I wonder where he ended up.
Leicester have Derby’s number but their recent form has left a lot to be desired. Winning streaks have to end somewhere – don’t they?
Tactics:
I expect the lineups to look something similar to, if not exactly like, this. The only possible changes may be a replacement for Ben Brereton Diaz, who has struggled of late, and Oliver Skipp starting in the holding midfield area with James pushed forwards and Reid dropping to the bench. Eustace likes Diaz, and he provides a third aerial outlet up front for the Rams, so I doubt he’ll be dropped. As for Leicester, Skipp has started more frequently than Reid but Reid started their last game. They did lose that game, however, so Cifuentes may revert to Skipp once more.
Something I’m sure Eustace will have highlighted are Leicester’s struggled against back 3/5s this season. They’ve played against them on 6 occasions, losing 3, drawing 2 and only beating Sheffield Wednesday – which hardly counts. If the rams can exploit their weaknesses in the same way these other sides have, we could see an end to the Leicester curse at Pride Park this weekend. That being said, both of the Rams’ recent losses to Boro and Watford have been against sides playing 4-2-3-1 as you’d expect Leicester to line up, so it could go either way.
Going forwards, Leicester like to play high-possession football with high volumes of short passes in their build-up play. They have the 3rd highest average possession in the league, the 4th most total passes but the second fewest total long balls. They like to work the ball steadily out wide and cross into the box, completing the 6th most crosses in the division. Their difficulty against 5 at-the-back systems may stem from the fact the outside channels are typically more congested with the wide centre-half covering alongside his wing-back as well as an attacking winger potentially dropping deep to cover. This stops Leicester playing their natural game and they don’t seem to have a plan B on file. At least not one that works.
If they advance down the flank with their full-back on the ball, their winger will curve their run into the box to draw a defender away from the ball, while the opposite winger makes a run from deep towards the back post to turn in a cross if it comes. Daka will peel slightly to one side, leaving room centrally for the 10 to advance into and further room the other side for one of the holding midfielders to step up into to latch onto any loose balls or challenge for the ball aerially. The other midfielder will sit around the edge in the event of a counter attack, also to pick up loose balls and recycle possession to keep an attack going, and the opposite-side full back tucks inside centrally for the same reasons as well as to drag their opposition out of position and create an overload in attack.
Alternatively, if their wingers have the ball the full-back will burst inside for an underlap to create central pressure and drive into space inside the box to shoot or square the ball to a forward to miss an open net. Fatawu and Mavididi are both so dangerous that they cannot reliably be shown inside or outside as they are capable of whipping crosses, finding through-passes or just beating their man and finding the far corner with an effort from the edge of the box. Joe Ward’s limited defensive capabilities will certainly be tested in this game.
Luckily for Wardy, he could also get a lot of joy. This will be music to Derby fans’ ears, Leicester are particularly susceptible to crosses and set-pieces. Hoorah! They conceded two goals from corners in the loss to Sheffield United last time out and one form a corner and one from a free-kick in the 3-0 defeat at Southampton. They also let in both of their goals in the loss to Blackburn from crosses into the box, if any team are going to exploit that weakness it’ll be Derby. Just 12 of our 25 goals this season have been from open play, and even the majority of those have been from crosses. With big Pat and Lars lurking, Leicester will certainly be worried.
Despite their preference for excessive passing, Leicester have actually looked most threatening from fast breaks. It baffles me that they don’t look to exploit this more with the pace and quality they have in attack, but that’s also part of the reason Cifuentes is potentially facing the sack with a loss to Derby this weekend. They’re also more than capable of a defensive calamity or silly error, as well as an inexplicable miss at the other end. Once is a coincidence, every game is definitely more like a pattern.
My final word of warning is to watch out for James shooting from range. They look to overload the final third and leave him unmarked from 25 yards knowing full well he is capable of burying a shot in the top corner from miles out. Keep tight to him, Bobby.
Prediction:
It’ll be tight. It’ll be cagey. I expect both sides to score here, Leicester have an overwhelming amount of quality and Derby are in the middle of a hot-streak. I probably make us the favourites, and if any other side than Leicester were facing us in this form I’d be certain of a home win, but I just can’t shake the fact that we don’t seem to be able to beat them.
For that reason, I’m going for a draw.
If you want to get really specific, it’s a Matt Clarke opener from a Joe Ward corner in the first half and a late leveller from Bobby Reid.
My Prediction: Derby 1-1 Leicester City
COYR!
White Noise 